Be more inclined to bet when your non-made hand has a backdoor flush draw. But first, a little Poker 101 for all you noobs out there – we’re talking about pot odds and pot equity. Most people have at least some understanding of odds in general. If you pick a number at random between 1 and 10, your odds of picking any specific number (say, 3 or 7) are exactly 1 in 10.
In the third part of the Paul Phua Poker School series on poker odds, Paul Phua gives tips on predicting the future to improve your present strategy
Would it not be wonderful to have the power to predict the future? It would certainly be easy to make money at betting! Film-lovers will recall how using a sports almanac from the future made Biff Tannen a rich man in the second Back to the Future film.
We can’t all have a DeLorean time machine, but in poker we have the next best thing. We have the ability to predict what is likely to happen in the future, and to change our strategy accordingly.
In the first two parts in this mini-series on poker odds, I gave tips on why odds are important, and how to calculate them using a simple magic formula. We have seen already how knowing our likelihood of winning will affect how much we bet. Now here is an interesting application in practical play:
How to play a nut flush draw
As I said in my video on the best pre-flop hands, a suited Ace has great potential as a starting hand, even if your kicker is low. An Ace on the flop often gives you the best hand, though be prepared to fold to opposition if your kicker is weak. And if you flop a flush draw, you are in a very powerful position – more powerful than many people realise.
Let’s take the starting hand shown in my video: A4 of diamonds. The flop comes K5 of diamonds, with a 9 of spades. Another player bets. First, do what you should always do when someone bets: work out what hand they are likely to hold.
There’s no strong straight draw out there; if he has a flush draw it’s worse than yours; sets are uncommon. You can’t put him on AK, as he didn’t seem that strong in pre-flop betting, so you reckon he has a K: maybe KQ or KJ. So he likely has top pair, and you have nothing – yet! But you have great potential. Let’s work out how much.
Count up your “outs”
There are nine diamonds left to come that complete our flush, plus three Aces to give us a higher pair: that’s 12 “outs”. Using our magic formula for calculating the odds, that gives us 12 x 4 = 48% chance of winning by the river. [Mathematicians say the real figure is 45% –the magic formula isn’t perfect, but it’s close enough.]
That’s a nearly 1 in 2 chance of winning the pot! Pretty good odds. But the great thing about poker is it’s not all cold, hard math. It takes strategy and psychology to decide how to play those odds.
Your instinct here will be to call, and hope to hit. That’s a reasonable strategy, and the more people who are in the hand, the better it is. You will likely take all their money if you hit your nut flush – thus being paid several times your investment.
But let’s look at another, more advanced strategy, one that is particularly valuable if only one other player is in the hand.
Re-raising for “fold equity”
Unless you are keen to keep a number of people in the pot, a great tactic against a single opponent is to re-raise rather than call. Re-raising gives you “fold equity”. That’s a fancy way of saying it gives you an extra chance at winning: if they get scared and fold, congratulations! You’ve won the pot with the worst hand. And if they call, you’re still a coin-flip to win by the river.
To have fold equity, your bet should be big enough to make them fold. Simply doubling their bet is almost never enough. Even a weak King is likely to call and hope you are semi-bluffing with a flush draw (which you are!), or that they hit two pair on the turn.
So how much do you raise? That calls for psychology: is this player a holder or a folder? Some people are “calling stations” who will call almost any bet with a pair. With a person like this, you may need to raise bigger. Either way, do it confidently. If you are relatively short-stacked, you can even shove all-in. Don’t worry! You are nearly 50-50 to win even if they call.
If they do call – what next?
Maybe they realise you’re on flush draw. Maybe they’re just stubborn. Whichever, your opponent calls you, and the turn card is a blank – it doesn’t help. What now?
Usually now you have no fold equity: if they called a re-raise on the flop, they will often feel committed to call a bet on the turn. And now you have only one card left to come, not two, so your chances of winning are halved to than 1 in 4.
Unless you are a very experienced player with a strong read that your opponent may fold, it’s not worth inflating the pot with what are now poor odds of winning. You want to check. The good news is, your opponent will be wary of you and will usually also check, so you get a “free” card to see the river.
To sum up: when you re-raise on the flop, you have maybe a coin-flip chance of them folding to give you a small pot; and a coin-flip chance of them calling, in which case you then have a coin-flip chance of winning a big pot. Three quarters of the time, therefore, you are winning with a re-raise!
Other flush draws
Let’s just look quickly at other flush draw combinations that you might not be aware of.
Two more outs: Let’s say there was a 4 on the flop rather than the 5, giving your A4 of diamonds a small pair. Now you have two additional outs (either of the two 4s still to come would give you three of a kind to beat his pair of Kings), so you are even better than 50%.
Three more outs: Or let’s say the flop came K52. Now with your A4 you additionally have an inside straight draw, giving three extra outs. (There are four 3s that would make a straight. One of these is a diamond and you’ve already counted that out in your flush draw, hence three extra outs not four).
Three fewer outs: The flush draw to beware of is where you have no extra outs, just the nine cards for your flush. The magic formula tells us that your chances then are just 9 x 4 = 36%, ie 1 in 3. It’s a big leak in less experienced players’ strategy to chase this kind of flush draw against a single opponent.
In my next article on poker odds and strategy…
I hope the above example shows how knowing the odds – our own probability time machine that lets us peer into future likely outcomes – helps dictate our present strategy. In my next article, I will give you a useful chart of the most common. Learn it well! Read the next article.
Pots odds are important to know when you have a drawing hand such as a flush draw or a straight draw. Knowing the fundamentals of pot odds will make the tough decisions for you. Your pot odds calculations will tell you if calling in a drawing situation will make you money or not.
Pot Odds Simplified
Anytime you are in a flush draw situation you should understand you have a 2 to 1 chance of actually hitting the hand. Just memorize that little tid bit because that’s a must know odd if you are going to play poker seriously. So, if you are 2 to 1 to hit your hand then wouldn’t it make sense that you need 2 to 1 on your money to be in the pot? Yes, pot odds can be that simple.
Memorizing the hand odds of actually hitting a hand is the most important thing you can do. We show below how to calculate your chances of winning a hand. After that it’s simply applying that odd to the size of the pot and how much you have to call.
Pro Techniques on Pot Odds
Dave Ulliott aka the “Devilfish” once explained a very simple tip that he uses to calculate the pot odds and his percentage of winning a hand or not. I personally love this technique and it is the only one I use. On the flop he will count his outs.
Outs are simply the cards that you can catch that you think will make you a winning hand or improve your hand. Let’s say you have AK in the hole and the board is 2, 3, and 4. At this point you can assume that you have 10 outs. You can hit 3 aces, 3 kings, or four 5’s to win the hand, hence you have 10 outs.
Devilfish then multiplies these 10 outs by 4 which would give him 40 and minuses 2 to get 38. Please note that the number 4 is a number that will always be used and will never change. He takes 2 off because he is holding two cards.The 38 would represent that he will win the pot 38% of the time and he acts accordingly to figure out his pot odds. He probably wouldn’t call any pot in this case where he isn’t getting just under 3 to 1 on his money.
If you never read anything on pot odds again remember this tip. It is the simplest and best way of calculating your odds in poker. You can use a slightly different formula if you want to figure out your odds on the turn which we will go into. Here are the formulas written out.
Flop Odds
(# of outs on flop X 4) – 2 = Odds of winning the hand
Ex: (10 x 4)-2 = 38% chance of winning hand
Don’t call a bet unless you are getting around 3 to 1 on your money.
The above example is for when you want to figure your odds on the flop. If you want to figure out the odds and pot odds on the turn you simply do this.
Winning Percentage and Pot Odds on the Turn
Here is how you figure out your pot odds and odds of winning after the turn card hits. Take your number of outs you calculated times 2 and then add 2 to that number. This will give you the odds of winning the pot after the turn and hitting your card on the river. The formula written out is below.
Turn Odds
(# of outs X 2) + 2 = Odds of winning hand after turn card
Pot Odds For Flush Draw
Ex from above: (10 x 2) + 2 = 22% chance of hitting winning card on river
In depth Poker Pot Odds Math (Seperate from above)
The math whizzes of the world can use these formulas. If you are good at calculating odds in your head here are the complex formulas you can use. Do not mix this with the simplified forumlas from above. Both with result in slight deviations.
Step 1.
You first need to figure out your chance of winning the hand. You do this by calculating your outs. You then divide this number by 47. The number 47 comes from 52 cards minus 3 on the board and 2 in your hand. This will give you the % of winning the hand.
Step 2.
Figure out how much money is in the pot and add in your opponents bet. You are trying to figure out if the bet is worth calling.
Step 3.
Take the figure you calculated in Step 2 of the pot size + the bet and multiply it by your percentage of winning the hand.
Step 4.
Evaluate the number you get. If it is greater than the amount he bet then you should call. If not then you should fold. Here is the formula and example written out.
(His bet + Pot Size) X (Chance of winning hand) = “Number”
Rule:If the “Number” is greater than “His bet” then you have pot odds to call.If not then fold.
Odds Of Straight Flush
Ex:A player bets $20 into a $50 pot.You have 12 outs of potentially winning the hand.Here is how you figure if you have pot odds to call.
Flush Draw Pot Odds
(20 + 50) X (12/47) = ~17.8
The number 17.8 is less than his bet of $20 so you should fold.
Pot Odds Conclusion
Poker Odds Flush Draw On Flop
Pot odds are not completely necessary to win at No Limit Texas Holdem but become very important in Pot limit poker. Pot limit brings in more odds and statistics and you really need to practice your pot odds calculating skills if you plan to win at PL poker. Because No Limit poker brings in to account a lot of luck and bluffing pot odds are not as important but can still be very useful.
Pot Odds To Call Flush Draw
Related Pages:
Free Poker Odds Calculator
Holdempoker.com Launched Live All-in Win Percentages